NCAA
Tournament Bracket Strategy
Every
year, millions of people fill out their ncaa basketball brackets.
And every year, thousands of people get wiped out by the second
round. Why is this? One reason is basketball is one of those sports
where good coaching and execution can overcome pure athletic talent
on a pretty regular basis. Another reason is that there are so many
distractions surrounding the tournament for players, you never know
which teams will be focused and which will underestimate their opponent.
Don't play your bracket for chump change! Bet with the Big Boys. March
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So
what are some common strategies?
Most
bracket veterans always stick to the motto that there is always
a handful of first round upsets, therefore people feel compelled
to try and predict one or more of these big 'upsets". Brackets
commonly have 13 seed beating a 3. Or even more often, you will
see someone with a 12 beating a 5 seed.
This
strategy seldom, if ever, works. It's a guessing game. And more
often than not, the guess is wrong. Then you not only miss out on
those first round points, but you also miss out on all the other
games that 'favorite" will win along the way.
Even
if you guess right, chances are that Cinderella team will lose the
next round. So in summary, you are taking a lot of risk to gain
1 small first round point in your march madness bracket.
So
we say, stick with the favorites in the early rounds. Even though
people might call you a wimp and say you are afraid to take a chance,
big deal. Don't ruin your entire bracket with a stupid early mistake.
Where
you need to do the homework is the sweet 16 rounds and up. The big
point rounds. Base your sweet 16 winners on the theory that every
single favorite won their game. It won't happen, nor are we suggesting
you never pick a lower seed (like a 6 to beat an 11). But for the
sake of this theory have a second 'homework" bracket that has
all the favorites in the sweet sixteen.
Based
on that, carefully examine the matchups for that round. Compare
styles of play, past ncaa tournament performance, past head to head
matchups, location of game, etc.
Then
pick your winners to move onto the great eight. Transfer your great
8 from your homework sheet to your final bracket entry.
Now
work backwards on your official sheet. Pick your first, second and
third round games in such a manner that your great 8 picks will
pan out.
After
that, move onto your final four choices and your champion using
the same type of research as you did for the sweet 16 matchups.
We
admit, this sounds confusing. Heck, we started confusing ourselves
just talking about it, let alone trying to describe on paper. But
it sounds like a good theory to us, and has proven itself out it
past years.
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